The first waves are hitting the beach as Cyclone CMBS picks up speed. Bloomberg reported today that “the (Bank) default rate for commercial real estate mortgages more than doubled in the second quarter compared with the same period last year. The proportion of loans more than 90 days past due soared from 1.18% in the second quarter of 2008 to 2.88% of the unpaid balances at the end of the second quarter of 2009, research firm Real Estate Econometrics said. Sam Chandan, the company’s president and chief economist, predicted the default rate will reach 4.1% by the end of this year.
But the storm also creates opportunities — and since my spin in this blog is on the plus side, I am going to let you in on a few secrets in the weeks ahead.